This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so I will wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and revel in the remainder of the day once the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I think we ought to have a big edge this week should we put in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those names they have never heard and will just be throwing in lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a huge score. I’ll be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card that Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making errors in money games. Any time I think I will guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I love to pile it into my money games and lock those factors. I think this fight is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we can observe multiple knockdowns as well that can help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points combined with both of these guys. Let’s let everybody else make the errors and we can lock at a 100+ points and a win, and then we only have to find another 3 wins we are confident in.
GPP drama of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think that this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a win. He has a very slick entry game and if this fight goes to the floor I presume he can pick up progress points fast and find a submission. Grant has had issues with entry defense in his career and even if he’s winning the feet, he shoots for takedowns each fight. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go for it himself and it will cost him. I believe we could observe a 1st round submission here and that should easily get that the 10x+ we are looking for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog play of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he will easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup when he can get there. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more instances than Shogun and has fought considerably worse competition. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the past couple of years but I believe he has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I really do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I believe you want some exposure to Rua if you are making multiple lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own picks being right and I can hit the right combo. It is hard to choose one favorite fade this week however I will pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to get the choice win here. So, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. But, he does not chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with only 1 or two in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a entry. However, I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
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